The cryptocurrency market is anticipated to experience significant supply pressure due to upcoming token unlocks valued at over $458 million. Connex (CONX) leads this list with a release of tokens worth $74.82 million.
Details of the Token Unlock
The upcoming token unlocks will introduce substantial new supply across several projects, with cliff-style unlocks accounting for approximately $230 million. Connex (CONX) leads this group with 4.33 million tokens worth $74.82 million. Aptos (APT) follows with 11.31 million tokens valued at $64.24 million, representing 1.92% of its current supply. ZKJ will release 18.06 million tokens valued at $37.01 million, accounting for 29.90% of its supply. Arbitrum (ARB) has scheduled a release of 92.65 million tokens worth $32.72 million, which adds 2.10% to its circulating tokens. Rounding out the major cliff unlocks, SEI will release 55.56 million tokens valued at $11.23 million (1.19% of supply). Following suit, Strike (STRK) plans to unlock 64 million tokens worth $9.99 million, which is 2.33% of its current circulation. Linear unlocks will add another $228 million to the market through more gradual releases. Solana (SOL) leads this category with 465,770 tokens valued at $58.20 million. However, this is just 0.09% of SOL’s large circulating supply. Worldcoin (WLD) will release 37.23 million tokens worth $30.31 million (3.47% of supply), while TIA will unlock 6.99 million tokens valued at $21.51 million (1.30% of supply). Other notable linear unlocks include Dogecoin (DOGE), with 96.52 million tokens worth $16.57 million, OM, with 2.65 million tokens valued at $16.04 million, and Avalanche (AVAX), with 700,000 tokens worth $12.79 million. The remaining unlocks spread across JTO, NEAR, DOT, IP, FIL, and a second SEI release collectively valued at approximately $60 million.
Market Impact of the Token Unlock
Token unlocks typically create selling pressure as newly released tokens become available for trading. However, the actual impact varies depending on market conditions and holder behavior. The most notable concern centers on Connex (CONX), where the 376.30% increase in circulating supply could substantially affect its market situation. Projects with large percentage increases relative to current supply face the highest risk of price volatility. After CONX, ZKJ’s 29.90% supply increase presents the next largest proportional unlock. In contrast, tokens like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are releasing relatively small percentages of their total supply (0.09% and 0.07%, respectively). These unlocks may limit price impact despite the dollar values involved. Historical patterns suggest that prices often decline in anticipation of major unlocks rather than immediately after the event itself. Several tokens included in the unlock schedule have already experienced price declines over the past week; for instance, Magic Square (SQR) has dropped 11.87% in the past 24 hours, while Ordibank (ORBK) has fallen 15.99% during the same period.
Risks and Considerations for Investors
Several factors should be considered by investors when assessing the potential impact of upcoming token unlocks. The unlock-to-market cap ratio offers a good indication of probable price effects. Projects with small market capitalizations facing large unlocks would, therefore, be under the highest risk of price volatility. An example would be Gods Unchained (GODS), which has a market cap of $33 million and a 60.71% unlock progress. In this situation, Gods Unchained would be a candidate for a price effect from the potential increase in supply. Unlocks are sometimes scheduled to coincide with project milestones or market events to avoid negative impacts. In some cases, project announcements of product launches, partnerships, or other beneficial news are aligned with unlocks. Investors should look at the project’s announcements and roadmap for potential mitigating factors that may alleviate some selling pressure.
The upcoming token unlocks present significant supply pressure on the market, particularly for projects with large percentage increases in circulation. Investors should pay attention to the unlock-to-market cap ratio and align it with project development plans to mitigate possible risks.
