CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull cycle has likely ended, signaling a potential shift in the crypto market's momentum. He states that key on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin may now face a sideways or bearish trend over the next 6 to 12 months.
Whales Selling as Liquidity Dries Up
Ju points to a decline in new liquidity entering the market, with large holders — known as whales — selling their Bitcoin at increasingly lower prices. This behavior usually indicates reduced confidence in short-term gains and could lead to more pressure on the price.
Mixed Reactions to Bearish Outlook
Not everyone agrees with Ju's analysis. Some users have pointed out that his sell signal in 2020 was incorrect, as Bitcoin went on to reach new all-time highs in the months that followed. Critics argue that while on-chain data can be useful, it's not always accurate in predicting market movements.
Using Principal Component Analysis
To support his prediction, Ju uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to key on-chain metrics like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). He calculates a 365-day moving average to analyze long-term trends and pinpoint market turning points. According to his data, the 1-year trend is now showing signs of a reversal.
Despite the skepticism, Ju remains firm on his bearish outlook, citing the lack of fresh capital and selling pressure from whales as strong indicators that the market's bullish momentum has stalled.
