The state of the US economy in 2025 raises many questions. From trade wars and recession risks to changes in Bitcoin prices, these factors impact global economic stability.
Impact of Policies on the US Economy
Last week, the probability of a recession in the US, according to Polymarket, increased from 39% to 40%. This is driven by uncertainties related to trade wars and initiatives like the DOGE department, which exposes waste and fraud. It is implied that a significant portion of government employees may lose their jobs, adding to the overall economic uncertainty.
Risks for Bitcoin Market and Mining Companies
Bitcoin lost 17.44% of its value in the last month, despite the creation of the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF also fell by 33.84% year-to-date. While Bitcoin is typically considered a risky investment, it also serves as an alternative to global currencies, allowing it to resist major economic shifts. If treasury rates decrease, Bitcoin might recover sooner.
Quantum Computing Stocks and Buffett's Investment Strategies
Stocks in the quantum computing sector remain speculative. Despite the 9.3% drop in Defiance Quantum ETF year-to-date, major companies in this sector have good profitability. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett is waiting for favorable investment conditions, accumulating record cash reserves, which might lead to advantageous purchases during economic downturns.
Amid potential recession, investors should remain vigilant and consider alternative investment strategies. Regardless of current adverse circumstances, economic history shows that savvy asset management can lead to significant opportunities in the future.
