Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated at a summit in Sydney that there's a small chance of a U.S. recession by 2025, focusing on trade policy issues.
U.S. Economic Prospects
David Solomon, speaking at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney, stated that the likelihood of a U.S. recession by 2025 is 'small but not zero'. He indicated that current economic conditions and trade relationships do not necessarily signal an impending recession.
Trade Policy Challenges
President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%. These actions have increased volatility in stock and bond markets. Solomon noted that while these policies pose economic risks, they do not necessarily point to an impending recession.
Business Leaders' Optimism
Despite some troubling forecasts, Solomon remains cautiously optimistic, noting that business executives are acutely aware of the impacts of trade policies and credit market conditions. Stephen Schwarzman also expressed confidence in the current strength of the U.S. economy.
While the U.S. economy remains generally stable, the long-term effects of Trump's hardline trade policies remain unknown. Investors and analysts continue to monitor changes in credit cycles and market dynamics.
