At the start of President Donald Trump's second term, his optimistic claims about the economy contrast sharply with the data signaling a downturn.
Economy and GDP in Q1
In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell, marking the first contraction in three years. Economists attribute this to a surge in imports ordered prior to new tariffs.
Trade Policy and Imports
The tariffs imposed since early April represent the biggest barrier to foreign goods in over a century. These measures have led to a sharp drop in consumer and business confidence. The level of uncertainty in global trade remains high.
Job Market and Consumer Confidence
Despite hiring levels in the first quarter surpassing forecasts, expectations for rising costs and inflation undermine consumer confidence. Key indicators reveal capital spending plans are at their lowest in over two years.
President Trump's optimistic statements about the start of his second term are met with economic realities where key indicators point towards slowdowns and uncertainty.
