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Elon Musk Claims Polymarket Is More Accurate Than Traditional Polls

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

9 months ago

Elon Musk recently sparked interest in the decentralized predictions market Polymarket, claiming it could more accurately predict the results of the 2024 US presidential election than traditional polling.

Polymarket and the US Elections

Elon Musk has increasingly shown support for former President Donald Trump and noted that, according to Polymarket, Trump is leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about three percentage points. These insights were shared by Musk on the X social media platform, which he owns.

"Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."None

How Polymarket Works

Polymarket is a decentralized predictions market that allows users to stake USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of events. The US presidential election has become the most active event in the site's history.

Debates on Prediction Accuracy

While Musk and some analysts believe that monetary backing incentivizes a more accurate market, there are arguments against it. Predicting a financial winner is not necessarily akin to a person's political leanings.

The accuracy of Polymarket in predicting the 2024 elections remains uncertain, despite Musk's assertions and the platform's popularity.

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