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Ether Price Under Pressure: Analysis of the Current Situation

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by A1

4 months ago


  1. ETH Trended Lower Against BTC in the Last 90 Days
  2. Bitcoin's Market Dominance Continues to Rise
  3. Ethereum Onchain Metrics Are Sluggish

  4. Ether's (ETH) price has reached a 40-month low against Bitcoin in 2024, while BTC continues to rise. ETH trades just 0.02% above its January 1 opening, while Bitcoin has risen approximately 36%.

    ETH Trended Lower Against BTC in the Last 90 Days

    Ether has dropped 34% over the last 90 days, underperforming Bitcoin, which has only declined by 15%. The ETH/BTC ratio has also fallen approximately 22% over the last three months, reaching a multi-year low of 0.04057 on September 11. The decline in the ETH/BTC ratio indicates a lack of demand for Ether, with investors preferring Bitcoin. In context, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been more successful since their approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10 than the spot Ethereum ETFs. According to Glassnode, the market influence of these investment products on Ether's price represents 1% of spot volume, while it influences Bitcoin's price by 8%.

    Bitcoin's Market Dominance Continues to Rise

    In addition to Ether's lagging performance in its BTC pair, ETH has been negatively impacted by the steady rise in Bitcoin dominance. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's market dominance continued to rise in 2024, reaching a 40-month high of 58% on August 5. This indicates that the top cryptocurrency is strengthening against altcoins, including Ether. Bitcoin dominance measures BTC's market capitalization relative to the overall crypto market and highlights the asset's strength. With Bitcoin dominance on a steady rise, ETH's value against its BTC pair is expected to continue dropping, suggesting that investors feel more bullish about BTC and possibly allocating less money to Ether investments.

    Ethereum Onchain Metrics Are Sluggish

    Measuring the number of active addresses on the network provides a quick and reliable indicator of the effective use of the blockchain and demand for the underlying token. The current 30-day average of 430,250 daily active addresses on the Ethereum network is a 7.7% decrease from 90 days ago and significantly lower than the 686,350 seen in May 2021. Thus, onchain data shows that users are interacting less with the layer-1 blockchain, indicating a reduction in Ether token transactions. According to DAppRadar data, Ethereum DApps' active addresses have declined by 19% over the past 30 days. Overall, the data is disheartening as competing blockchains such as Solana and Tron saw a 257% and 343% increase in unique active wallets (UAWs) over the same period. Sustained network growth, an increase in Ether transactions, and DApp usage are necessary for ETH to rise above $2,400.

    Ether continues to lag behind Bitcoin in 2024 for several reasons, including the rise in Bitcoin dominance, declining demand for ETH, and sluggish onchain metrics. Investors remain more bullish on Bitcoin, making Ether's growth challenging.

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