Ethereum is under pressure, showing four consecutive monthly losses. Analysts discuss if a further decline is ahead or if this is the bottom.
ETH/BTC Hits 5-Year Low
On March 30, the ETH/BTC ratio reached a five-year low of 0.021, indicating Ethereum's underperformance compared to Bitcoin over the years. In March 2023, Ethereum's total monthly fees dropped to $22 million, reaching their lowest level since June 2020, indicating low network activity and market interest.
Probability of Ethereum Short-term Bottom
Despite the negative trends, analyst VentureFounder suggested that the ETH/BTC bottom might occur in the coming weeks. He hinted at possible further drops to 0.017-0.022 range, predicting a recovery post this downturn. CITE_NA: "Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward; lots of similarity with 2018-2019 Fed tightening & QE cycle, expecting the first higher high after May FOMC when Fed ends QT & begins QE."
Historical Analysis: Ethereum Trends
Since its inception, Ethereum has recorded three or more consecutive monthly losses on five occasions. Each time, this was followed by a short-term recovery. In 2018, after seven consecutive red months, ETH's price jumped 83% following the correction. Historically, Ethereum has a 75% probability of a green month in April, considering Q2 results where average monthly returns are as high as 60.59%.
While Ethereum faces challenges, its historical behavior suggests the possibility of a short-term recovery. Q2 is expected to be positive for ETH.
