Ether (ETH) has ventured into oversold territory against Bitcoin (BTC) multiple times in recent months, showing no sign of finding a bottom yet. We explore the current trends and future forecasts.
ETH's Repeated Breakdowns and Their Implications
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on ETH's three-day timeframe remains below 30, typically signaling a possible bounce. Historically, such dips have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has seen successive losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5%. Additionally, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming a lack of bullish strength.
Insights from ETF and On-chain Data
The 'cursed' ETH/BTC downtrend stands out against the broader crypto market, with spot ETH ETF net flows dropping to $2.54 billion in March—a 9.8% decrease—while spot Bitcoin ETF net flows fell by only 2.35%. Ethereum's gas fees were around 1.12 GWEI, down nearly 50 times compared to a year ago. Data platform Nansen noted that mainnet activity never fully rebounded, shifting much of it to Solana and L2 solutions.
ETH/BTC Pair Forecast
The ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart. A drop below the trendline could lead to a 15% decline, with a downside target for April at 0.01968 BTC. However, if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant's upper resistance and turns the 50-day EMA into support, a bullish reversal may occur.
Analysts remain cautiously bearish on ETH, given its less favorable risk/reward ratio against BTC and lower network activity. However, future trends will hinge on market conditions and potential improvements in fundamentals.
