Geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel are negatively impacting global risk appetite, influencing traditional and crypto markets alike. Ethereum is facing instability amid growing macroeconomic anxiety.
Technical Analysis of Ethereum
Ethereum’s daily chart shows a clear rejection from the $2,800 resistance area, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and a bearish order block. After a strong relief rally from the $1,500 region earlier this quarter, ETH consolidated in an ascending channel pattern but is now likely to break below the lower trendline of that channel.
This structure typically signals exhaustion in bullish momentum, especially when the market fails to push higher despite favorable short-term setups. The RSI has also dropped back under the 50 mark, reflecting bearish momentum.
The price is now re-entering the mid-range zone, between $2,800 and $2,150. If Ethereum fails to reclaim $2,800 soon, the door will open for a possible move back toward the $2,150 support level, which coincides with the 100-day moving average and the top of the last major accumulation range. A bounce from there would be critical to preserve the broader bullish bias in recent months.
Market Sentiment Analysis
Open Interest (OI) on Ethereum derivatives has briefly reached its highest point over the past couple of years, exceeding $21B, before experiencing a marginal drop due to the liquidity caused by tensions in the Middle East. What makes this development even more interesting is that this surge in OI is occurring while ETH is trading significantly lower than it did the last time OI was this elevated.
This divergence typically signals a buildup of leveraged positions—both long and short—that are yet to be flushed out of the system. Historically, such OI-price divergence often precedes large-scale liquidation events. If the market can’t generate a clean breakout soon, a volatility spike triggered by the unwinding of over-leveraged positions could happen. This aligns with the growing geopolitical risk, which could catalyze a fast repricing if global investors move to risk-off assets.
Conclusion
Currently, Ethereum is at a critical level, and its further movement may depend not only on technical factors but also on external events. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and financial market instability, traders should closely monitor the developments.
The price dynamics of Ethereum are under pressure from both technical analysis and external macroeconomic factors. It is important to stay informed about changes and new setups in the market.
