Bitcoin traders are preparing for the expiry of $20 billion in monthly options on June 27. While Bitcoin is down 1.72% over the last 30 days, traders using options for downside protection are bracing for potential declines.
Current Trader Positions
The current open interest for call options stands at $11.2 billion compared to $8.8 billion for put options. Notably, $7.1 billion of those put options have strike prices at $101,000 or lower, creating an advantage for bulls.
Market Influencing Factors
Some analysts attribute Bitcoin's strength to a more dovish tone from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In his testimony before Congress, he stated that "many paths are possible" regarding interest rates, including the potential for cuts if inflation remains controlled.
Scenarios for Upcoming Options Expiry
Based on current price trends, five probable scenarios emerge. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances, excluding complex strategies. * Between $100,000 and $101,500: $1.74 billion calls vs. $1.75 billion puts, a balanced result. * Between $101,500 and $102,500: $1.86 billion calls vs. $1.62 billion puts, favoring calls by $235 million. * Between $102,500 and $104,500: $1.93 billion calls vs. $1.18 billion puts, favoring calls by $750 million. * Between $104,500 and $106,000: $2.47 billion calls vs. $1.06 billion puts, favoring calls by $1.41 billion. * Between $106,000 and $108,000: $2.84 billion calls vs. $750 million puts, favoring calls by $2.1 billion.
Bitcoin traders await key events ahead of the options expiry, with current market dynamics potentially playing a critical role in determining the cryptocurrency's future direction.
