Analysis of FedWatch data shows high probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July and September 2025. This may impact global financial markets.
Probability of Steady Rates for July
According to the Chinese media outlet ChainCatcher, the FedWatch tool indicates an 81.4% chance of maintaining interest rates in July, with only an 18.6% chance of a rate cut. Predictions for September show an 8.6% probability of unchanged rates and a 74.8% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut.
Impact on Crypto Markets
Federal Reserve actions are anticipated to affect global liquidity and investor preferences. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum typically experience price fluctuations around these monetary policy updates. Historical stability in rates has often triggered sideways trading or market contraction.
Expert Expectations and Conclusions
Expert opinions on this matter are not uniform, and explicit reports from major industry players are lacking. However, market analyst Watters noted, "If this week’s inflation data is weak, the dollar may come under pressure and decline, which could drive up gold prices." Leading market participants highlight the need for a cautious approach to investments amid potential volatility.
According to ChainCatcher's analysis, the high probability of maintaining interest rates in the coming months may lead to changes in the behavior of the cryptocurrency market. Considering macroeconomic factors, future movements in this segment will depend on the decisions of the Federal Reserve.
