Key points regarding future interest rate changes and their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market were expressed during the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Factions in the Fed: Different Opinions on Rates
At the recent Fed meeting, three main factions among participants emerged.
1. Mainstream Group: Supports a rate cut this year but not in July.
2. Conservative Group: Insists that rates should not be cut this year to avoid undermining progress in combating inflation.
3. Aggressive Group: Advocates for immediate rate cuts starting in July.
Current market expectations are largely based on the position of the mainstream faction; however, the tug-of-war between differing viewpoints continues to intensify sentiment volatility.
Tariffs and Their Impact on Inflation
One of the new and significant factors highlighted in the minutes of the meeting was tariffs, which could impact inflation. While some participants voiced that new tariffs might increase price pressure, others believed it to be merely a one-time price adjustment.
Thus, the Fed has entered a 'wait and see' mode on this matter, hesitating to react to emerging risks.
What This Means for the Crypto Market
Despite a lack of specific signals regarding rate cuts, this creates some positive expectations for the cryptocurrency market.
1. The stability of the macroeconomic environment allows Bitcoin to firmly settle above the $60,000 mark.
2. For institutional investors, the positive signal is the indication that a spike in annual rates will not recur, which may be favorable for interest in Bitcoin ETFs. 3. Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC will retain their competitive advantage in the context of stable short-term yields.
4. Uncertainty around tariffs and inflation may promote the growth of projects related to the tokenization of goods and supply chain financing.
In conclusion, based on the Fed's minutes, several key insights can be derived: the Fed's main concern is inflation, and there are divergences in opinions among officials regarding rates. Although there are no immediate positive signals for cryptocurrencies, the market has the opportunity for further growth without significant risks.
