In light of recent market fluctuations, analyst Gert van Lagen has shared a forecast indicating Bitcoin could rise to $330,000. This is based on the AVIV indicator, which historically has been able to predict peak values.
The Significance of AVIV Ratio
The AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Invested Value), has not yet crossed the critical +3 standard deviation threshold, which typically signals market peak. Gert van Lagen points out that in previous instances where the AVIV Ratio crossed this threshold, Bitcoin's price reached significant highs: $1,200 in 2013, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and about $69,000 in 2021. "We could see a price rise to at least $330,000 in this cycle," van Lagen suggests.
Institutional Investments and Predictive Models
Analyzing interest from institutional investors, there is a decline in Bitcoin balances on over-the-counter (OTC) desks, interpreted as accumulation. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC supplies have decreased from 166,500 to 137,400 BTC this year. Additionally, substantial funds are actively flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, supporting the bull trend. A model developed by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With suggests the price could fluctuate between $220,000 and $330,000.
Caution in Current Trend Assessments
Secondary model analysis shows significant volatility in Bitcoin's price, and existing models cannot guarantee a linear price increase. Despite the positive signals, such as institutional accumulation, trend analysis must remain cautious. Minor shifts in the market trajectory can significantly impact forecasts.
While there are optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin, it is important to approach data analysis with caution regarding potential volatility and model discrepancies. Current market dynamics indicate that the bull cycle may continue, and investors should carefully monitor changes.
