Analyst Benjamin Cowen has introduced a new model linking Bitcoin's previous all-time highs with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) to forecast macro turning points.
The Model and Its Foundations
The model relies on observing where the 200-week SMA intersects with historical ATH levels. EGRAG notes that in multiple cycles, these intersections have closely aligned with Bitcoin's macro tops.
Recurring Patterns in BTC Cycles
In Cycle A, the model predicted the top with notable precision—marking the cycle peak right where the SMA and ATH intersected. Cycle B followed a similar path, with the projected top almost perfectly matching the actual market high. In Cycle C, the top arrived 42 days later than the projection, showing that while the pattern holds promise, it isn’t immune to volatility or timing deviations.
Expected Dates of the Next Cycle
Looking forward, EGRAG projects that extending the 200-week SMA forward points to two potential Bitcoin cycle tops with geometrical significance: September 2025 and March 2026. He warns that using long-term averages in highly volatile markets carries risk.
EGRAG stresses that these are projections, not certainties, emphasizing that the real answers will come with time. Still, this model offers a fresh way to think about Bitcoin’s cycle timing and adds new context to discussions about when the next top could form.
