Recent changes in the oil market have drawn attention due to their links with geopolitical occurrences and technical factors. We explore the key drivers and consequences of this situation.
Technical Rebound and Geopolitical Push
On March 21, 2025, prices for WTI and Brent oil significantly rose, exceeding $81.50 and $85.00, respectively, following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions against entities involved in the delivery of Iranian drones to Russia. These actions prompted operators to reassess supply risks, leading to an increase in long positions. Analysts noted a favorable technical context: for WTI, resistances are at $83.30 and $84.60, with support at $80.75. For Brent, the main resistance is at $86.80, with support at $85.00. In the face of escalating geopolitical tensions, markets remain inclined to buy.
Fragile Dynamics Between Fundamentals and Contradictory Signals
While oil markets have embraced recent developments with optimism, forecasts for the medium term remain complex due to conflicting signals. The current trend is more supported by expectations of supply tightening than demand surge. The market impact is influenced by anticipated OPEC+ decisions, U.S. inventory changes, and China's economic performance. Meanwhile, natural gas prices continue to decline, indicating different dynamics within the energy sector.
Future of Commodity Markets: Forecasts and Expectations
The future of commodity markets will largely depend on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and the positions of key investors. If the current rise in oil prices continues, it could become an attractive safe-haven asset amid overall uncertainty. Conversely, a drop in demand might trigger a technical retreat, as evidenced by the impact of tensions within OPEC.
Oil markets are experiencing a complex period, where technical and geopolitical factors are forming a new dynamics. Future changes will depend on various variables that market participants need to closely watch.
