The likelihood of the United States establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 has risen, reflecting increased focus on crypto’s role in financial policy amid economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin Reserve Expectations
Market sentiment around a U.S. Bitcoin reserve has shifted dramatically. At the start of the year, odds were around 45%. By mid-January, they climbed to 60-65%. However, late January saw a sharp decline, bottoming out near 40%. A turnaround began in mid-February, with probabilities recovering to 50%. The most significant spike occurred in late February, with odds soaring from 40% to over 70% within a short period. Throughout March, predictions remained stable, fluctuating between 70-75%.
Economic Uncertainty Hits Record Levels
Besides Bitcoin speculation, economic uncertainty has reached historic highs. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which has long tracked market instability, captured the impact of events like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The current peak indicates concerns over economic stability. Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement adds another layer of volatility, potentially leading to market turbulence.
Market Impact
The combination of Bitcoin speculation and economic instability suggests increased market volatility. Investors are bracing for changes as Bitcoin’s growing influence on financial policymaking takes shape.
The rising odds of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve by 2025 and heightened economic uncertainty indicate significant shifts in the financial system. Investors prepare for potential market swings.
