San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly believes that artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to significant productivity growth, akin to the information revolution of the late 1990s.
The Role of AI in Productivity
Mary Daly notes that while US productivity has been rising in recent years, economists are not unanimous about the causes. However, Daly believes AI is significantly influencing productivity through machine learning, robotic processing, and automation. Though this impact hasn't yet fully reflected in measurable statistics, changes are evident.
Historical Parallels to the IT Revolution
In the late 1990s, economists, including Alan Greenspan, observed productivity growth due to the IT revolution. Mary Daly argues that history is repeating itself, but this time with AI. Greenspan, convinced of rising productivity, adjusted the Fed’s monetary policy.
San Francisco Fed's Research Plan
The San Francisco Fed is conducting research analogous to the 1990s efforts, exploring how companies use AI. This includes meeting with executives and studying international experiences. Such engagement helps understand how technologies can enhance teams and automate tasks, reducing employee fatigue. Mary Daly emphasizes that these changes may take up to a decade but are already underway.
AI offers powerful tools to improve the working environment and reduce labor strain, potentially leading to significant productivity enhancements in the future, as seen with the computer revolution.
