The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2025, global oil production will surpass demand. However, conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, may pose risks to supply stability.
IEA Production Forecast
According to the IEA report, global oil output will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day to 104.9 million b/d, against a demand of 103.8 million b/d. This rise is expected due to OPEC+ reversing production cuts and increased output from non-cartel countries.
Oil Consumption Trends in China and the U.S.
The IEA notes that weaker demand in China and the U.S. will limit global demand growth to 720,000 b/d. Projections indicate that China's oil use will peak in 2027, not exceeding 16.9 million b/d.
Expert Opinions on Oil Market Future
While the IEA expects emerging markets like India to be key sources of demand growth until 2030, opinions among experts vary. For instance, Vitol and some banks do not rule out that demand may not peak until after 2030.
The IEA's data suggests potential oil surplus in the future despite geopolitical risks. Market conditions may change, and the future of oil production remains uncertain, given the differing forecasts from experts.
