1. Inexorable Collapse of Prices in Île-de-France
2. A Lasting Crisis with Profound Repercussions
3. An Uncertain Future for the Real Estate Market

The real estate market in Île-de-France is experiencing a significant downturn, marked by steep price declines and a collapse in transaction volumes. Once a stable pillar of the regional economy, this sector now faces new waves of economic difficulties and fluctuations.

Inexorable Collapse of Prices in Île-de-France

The French real estate market is undergoing an unprecedented crisis characterized by widespread property devaluation and a dramatic drop in transaction volumes. In Île-de-France, prices for old apartments have fallen by 6.7% year-on-year, according to data from the notaries of Greater Paris. In Paris, the price per square meter is now around 9450 euros, a notable decrease from 10860 euros in 2020. This decline is not limited to the capital; the inner suburbs have seen even sharper drops of 7.4%, while the outer suburbs have been slightly more resilient with a 5.5% decline. The situation is exacerbated by difficulties in accessing credit and rising interest rates.

A Lasting Crisis with Profound Repercussions

The real estate crisis in Île-de-France has deep ramifications for the market and its participants. Sales continue to plummet, showing an 18% year-on-year drop and a 38% decline over two years for older properties. The affected categories also include houses, which have seen a 44% decline in sales since 2022. Notaries of Greater Paris describe the market as sluggish, reminiscent of the darkest times of the subprime mortgage crisis. Key causes include rising interest rates and banks' reluctance to issue loans.

An Uncertain Future for the Real Estate Market

While prices continue to fall, the decline rate has slightly slowed, offering modest signs of relief. However, this respite does not indicate a market recovery. Household solvency remains weakened by high financing costs and persistent inflation, limiting any significant improvement in activity. Future projections remain uncertain: a potential rate cut could support a tentative revival in transactions, but economic uncertainty remains a significant risk factor.

The real estate market in Île-de-France is at a critical juncture, caught between declining prices and a struggling recovery in activity. Though some signs of stabilization are emerging, they are not strong enough to reverse the current trend. Resolving the ongoing crisis will require a comprehensive reevaluation of credit access conditions, the restoration of trust, and a more predictable economic environment.