Bitcoin continues to rise sharply, testing the $86,000 mark, yet its path is overshadowed by concerns over the formation of a 'death cross' on charts. This has led to contentious interpretations among analysts.
Dangerous Signal Amidst Growth
On April 6, Bitcoin's daily chart recorded a well-known bearish crossover in technical analysis: the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, forming what is referred to as a 'death cross'. This signal, traditionally viewed as a harbinger of bearish movements, comes to light amidst the current surge of the asset. Even as Bitcoin surpassed $86,000 on April 15, 2025, a correction soon followed, dropping the price back below $84,000.
Opponents of the 'Death Cross'
Some analysts, like Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, emphasize the need for caution. He points to a worrying divergence between Bitcoin's market capitalization and its realized capitalization, suggesting a possible overvaluation. He states, 'this pattern has already preceded several major corrections' and estimates that the market could enter a consolidation phase lasting 'six to twelve months'. Conversely, other experts view the 'death cross' as a risky signal and believe it could lead to price increases.
Risk Management Tips
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, approaches the analysis statistically, claiming that 'in many cases, the death cross is a buying opportunity rather than a selling signal.' He notes that Bitcoin's price is, on average, 3.2% lower one month after such a signal, but often higher three months later. This underscores the importance of broad interpretation of such signals in the context of the overall market and the necessity for comprehensive risk management.
The current situation with Bitcoin, its growth, and the 'death cross' signal highlights disagreements among analysts. Considering the wide range of opinions and possible scenarios, markets require careful analysis and risk management.
