Following a period of stable inflation in the US, June has shown a rise in consumer prices attributed to increased import tariffs. This change raises concerns among economists and is expected to influence upcoming inflation trends.
Rise in Consumer Price Index
According to a Bloomberg survey, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% last month, marking the largest monthly gain since January. The annualized core inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.9%, its first increase since the beginning of the year.
Retail Sales Situation and Federal Reserve Policy
Retail sales data due on Thursday is projected to show only marginal growth in June after two consecutive monthly declines. While consumer spending has moderated, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting interest rates due to risks of persistent inflation tied to tariffs.
Global Inflation Shifts and Tariff Consequences
Global markets are also adjusting to changing inflation trends. Key inflation data is expected in Canada and Japan. Meanwhile, the G20 finance ministers' meeting in South Africa occurs against a backdrop of rising global inflation and trade tensions, increasing pressure on policymakers.
Changes in consumer prices in the US and global inflation trends highlight the need for close monitoring of the economic situation. The impact of import tariffs and subsequent responses from central banks will remain a focal point in the latter half of the year.
