Bitcoin shows early signs of potential rally in the face of low new user activity and a shift towards accumulation.
Rising Bitcoin Accumulation Activity
Bitcoin's price charts reveal a series of signals indicating the formation of a new rally. Data on stablecoin inflows show patterns similar to those seen after the failures of Terra/LUNA and FTX. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. mentioned that the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dipped into negative territory, indicating uncertain participant interest.
> "If inflows remain at or surpass levels seen post-LUNA and FTX, it would strongly signal the launchpad of the next Bitcoin rally." — CITE_W_A
Signs of HODL Dominance
Bitcoin prices remain above $100,000; however, activity from new users remains low. The 30-day SMA of new UTXO, serving as a proxy for new network activity, has approached 570,000, roughly 40% lower than when prices hovered around $60,000–$70,000. This indicates that long-term holders are locking in their assets, creating potential for rapid price increases with newly generated demand.
Risks Amid Demand-Supply Imbalance
Despite bullish structural signals, short-term risks persist. The Apparent Demand metric for 30 days has turned negative, revealing insufficient strength in new buyer demand to absorb selling pressure from miners and long-term holders. This imbalance elevates the risk of a near-term price correction.
In conclusion, despite positive signals related to accumulation and the activity of major players, short-term risks remain relevant. Further price fluctuations for Bitcoin will hinge on the ability of new demand to outpace residual selling pressure.
