Military actions by Israel against Iran have been ongoing for eight days. Senior officials state that this could lead to the collapse of the regime in Tehran, significantly impacting the global oil market.
Escalation of the Conflict between Israel and Iran
Israel is actively bombing Iran, resulting in a 10% rise in oil prices. Current oil prices remain below $80 per barrel, but analysts warn that further escalation in the conflict may destabilize global markets.
US Support and Potential Consequences
US President Donald Trump has expressed support for Israel, threatening Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and considering active involvement in the conflict. Israel's Defense Minister stressed the need to destabilize the Iranian regime, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not confirm regime change as a goal.
Likelihood of Supply Shocks
Historical analyses indicate that regime change in oil-producing countries can lead to significant price spikes. For instance, after the 1979 Iranian revolution, oil prices tripled. If the political situation in Iran deteriorates, prices may remain high and the market unstable.
The current situation in Iran is exacerbated by military actions from Israel, with potentially serious implications for the global oil market. The market is at a crossroads of uncertainty, and attention remains focused on further developments.
