The bitcoin-gold exchange rate has fallen below a key ascending trend line that has remained intact for over 12 years, raising concerns about a potential shift in Bitcoin’s long-term market trajectory.
Analysis of the Current Situation
Prominent analyst NorthStar warns that if Bitcoin stays below this trendline for a week or more, it could signal the end of the 12-year bull run. The sharp divergence between Bitcoin and gold came as spot gold prices reached an all-time high of over $3,000 an ounce on March 14. Gold is up about 12.80% year to date, driven by strong demand and economic uncertainty. In contrast, Bitcoin has faced selling pressure, with an 11% drop so far in 2025.
Investor Sentiment Changes
Investor sentiment appears to be changing, with inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) far outpacing Bitcoin ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, US spot gold ETFs have seen inflows of more than $6.48 billion this year, while global gold ETF inflows have reached $23.18 billion. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of about $1.46 billion year-to-date.
Analyst Commentary
An analyst said: "BITCOIN/GOLD is moving below the support line that has held it together for 12 years. If we close the week below that, it would be very bad. If we close the bear below that, this bull run will be over (and probably get worse)." Charlie Morris, founder of ByTree and manager of the BOLD ETF, which tracks both Bitcoin and gold, noted the opposing trends in ETF investments. "Gold ETFs have seen $10 billion inflows in the last 30 days, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen $5 billion outflows," Morris said. "Sooner or later, the flows will reverse, as they always do."
The situation in the Bitcoin and gold markets raises concerns as investors shift their capital into gold ETFs amid declining Bitcoin prices. Analysts predict that the flow reversal is inevitable.
