Bitcoin's prolonged downturn over the last two months has raised speculation about the end of the bull cycle and the onset of a bear market. Key indicators play a significant role in predicting the price trajectory.
The Bull Score Model
The Bull Score Model by CryptoQuant evaluates Bitcoin's investment environment using nine on-chain indicators and one market metric. Each is valued at 1 (bullish) or 0 (bearish), assessing network activity, market liquidity, demand, and investor behavior. Main metrics include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), and others. Currently, only Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signal are giving bullish signals.
Bitcoin Market Metrics
Metrics like the Network Activity Index have been bearish since December 2024, indicating reduced network activity. The Bull Score Model measures the bullish metrics percentage from 0 to 100. During past bull markets, BTC experienced strong rallies at Bull Scores of 60 and above. Now, the Bull Score stands at 20 – the lowest since January 2023.
Conclusion on Market State
Bitcoin faces a weak investment environment with low chances of a sustained rally soon. The low Bull Score suggests a lack of strong fundamentals to sustain price growth.
Analysis of the metrics suggests that the current Bitcoin market situation is weak, with little likelihood of a steady recovery in the near term, indicating the end of the bull cycle.
