JPMorgan has released a report challenging the optimistic forecasts of other financial institutions regarding the growth of the stablecoin market.
JPMorgan's Forecast on Stablecoins
JPMorgan predicts that the stablecoin market will grow to $500 billion by 2028. This stands in contrast to more optimistic forecasts from other major financial institutions, such as Bernstein, which expected the market volume to reach $4 trillion, and Standard Chartered, forecasting $2 trillion. Currently, the stablecoin market is valued at $250 billion, with most of its value utilized for collateral, decentralized financing, and cryptocurrency trading. However, only 6% of the total demand for stablecoins, around $15 billion, is allocated for payment transactions.
GENIUS Act and Its Potential Impact
On June 18, 2025, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, significantly expanding the stablecoin market in the United States. The act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for the issuance, regulation, and oversight of payment stablecoins. Strong bipartisan support and backing from the White House increase the likelihood of its passage through the House. The act will provide clear regulatory guidelines addressing issuer eligibility, reserve requirements, and consumer protection measures.
Growth Limitations and Barriers Ahead
JPMorgan's pessimistic view relies on the current limited application of stablecoins beyond cryptocurrency markets. The report notes that payment use accounts for only 6% of overall stablecoin demand. Most stablecoin use is currently restricted to crypto trading and decentralized finance. Several barriers stand in the way of stablecoin adoption in mainstream payment systems, including decentralized regulatory frameworks that create uncertainty for corporations. Additionally, the technological sophistication of stablecoin technology poses challenges for general consumers accustomed to traditional payment systems.
JPMorgan's predictions underscore the conflicting expectations surrounding stablecoins and highlight the need for clearer regulations for their successful integration into mainstream payment systems.
