JPMorgan Chase has released an updated economic outlook for April 2025, highlighting a serious slowdown in the US economy.
GDP Growth Revision
According to JPMorgan, the forecast for real GDP growth in the US for 2025 has been revised down from +1.3% to -0.3%. This sharp change indicates the expected economic contraction.
Inflation and Unemployment Increase
The projected unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 5.3% due to weakening economic activity. Additionally, the Core PCE inflation forecast has been revised upward to 4.4% by the end of the year.
Prospects for Federal Reserve's Economic Policy
The report indicates that the Fed may begin cutting interest rates starting in June. JPMorgan predicts that rates will be cut at every meeting until January 2026. However, there is a risk of delays in taking action.
These forecasts suggest that economic weakness related to new tariffs could have negative consequences for the US economy in 2025.
