JPMorgan Chase estimates a 60% probability of a global recession amid new U.S. trade policies creating market uncertainty.
New U.S. Trade Policies
The U.S. tariffs against China and the European Union have created tensions in global trade. These measures are expected to negatively affect international trade relationships.
A note published by JPMorgan Chase highlighted that the U.S.’s "destructive" policies represent the biggest risk factor for the global outlook throughout the year.
A JPMorgan Chase official stated, "U.S. policies will heighten their impact with decreased business sentiment and supply chain disruptions."
2025 Economic Predictions
Major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs have also pointed out the increasing risk of recession in the U.S. economy. Their forecasts include factors that will closely affect the U.S. economy within the next 12 months.
Goldman Sachs indicated that its previous assessment has risen by 20%, now estimating a 35% chance of recession. Another institution, HSBC, stated that market data supports their assessment, indicating approximately a 40% likelihood of recession by year-end.
An HSBC analyst noted, "The stock market has partially priced in the global recession risk."
Market Influence and Future Expectations
In recent weeks, the U.S. President announced a 10% tariff on imports from certain countries, which is expected to create a chaotic environment in global trade. Market observers express that the implemented tariffs and other measures could exert pressure on economic activity in the short term.
A recession could lead to declines in cryptocurrency markets, akin to inflationary pressures. If the Fed delays intervention again, we might see new lows in cryptocurrency by July.
The analyses suggest that the new policies and measures could produce complex effects on global trade relations and economic recovery. It is emphasized that definitive conclusions have not yet been reached, and market conditions continue to show significant variability.
JPMorgan predicts a high likelihood of global recession linked to new U.S. trade policies. Analyses indicate substantial impacts on economic activity and cryptocurrency markets.
