According to a recent report from Reuters, JPMorgan Chase has identified a 60% probability of a global economic downturn. This assessment comes as a response to newly implemented U.S. trade policies that have stirred uncertainty across international markets.
New U.S. Trade Policies
The United States’ recent tariff measures targeting China and the European Union have escalated tensions in global trade. Analysts predict that these actions will negatively impact international trade relations, creating a ripple effect across economies.
Impact on the Economy
JPMorgan highlighted that the U.S.’s “destructive” policies pose the most significant threat to the global economic outlook this year. A JPMorgan official stated that these policies are likely to decrease business confidence and disrupt supply chains, exacerbating economic challenges.
Predictions from Financial Institutions
Other financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have noted an increased risk of recession, raising their predictions by 20%. Goldman now sees a 35% chance of recession in the next year, while HSBC points to a 40% likelihood based on current market data.
The ongoing implications of these trade policies could lead to a complex landscape for global economic recovery. As market conditions evolve, the precise outcome remains uncertain, leaving many to watch closely for further developments.
