Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has released a report indicating a probability of over 61% for a US recession in 2025. This forecast reflects trader sentiments on economic trends.
Kalshi Prediction: 61% Recession Likelihood
Kalshi has issued a forecast indicating that the likelihood of a US recession in 2025 exceeds 61%. This figure represents the highest observed in recent months, revealing significant pessimism among prediction market participants.
> "Current odds of a 62% U.S. recession in 2025 are the highest observed in months, marking significant pessimism within prediction market participants." - CITE_W_A
Market Impact of the Prediction
The immediate effects of the prediction include increased market speculation and potential shifts in investor strategies. Economic forecasts are now under heightened scrutiny. There are expected changes in investment patterns and risk assessments. This forecast may affect both global markets and local economic policies.
Comparison with 2008 Economic Indicators
Compared to 2008, the current prediction displays similar concerns over economic indicators, marked by rising investor caution. Experts suggest that outcomes may align with previous recession trends, encouraging preemptive measures from economic authorities to mitigate impacts.
Kalshi's recession prediction for 2025 highlights growing caution in financial markets. Investors and authorities should consider this forecast when shaping their strategies.
