A recent study by Crisil Coalition Greenwich indicates that major banks worldwide, including several American institutions, expect trading revenues to rise by approximately 10% in the third quarter of 2025.
Surge in Trading Revenues Among Major Banks
According to data reported by Reuters, trading income for 12 major banks increased by 15% in the first quarter and continues to rise. In late June, top executives at Bank of America and Citigroup informed investors that they expect market revenues to grow in the mid-to-high single digits this quarter. Analysts believe that these banks may even exceed those forecasts.
Factors Driving Revenue Growth
The increase in revenues is tied to changes in U.S. tariff policy, which induced significant price swings in equities and led to record trading volumes in U.S. Treasuries. "Anyone in the market-making business will benefit," noted a veteran Wall Street executive who wished to remain anonymous. The rise in risks has prompted investors to reassess their portfolios.
Outlook for 2025
Crisil forecasts that total market revenue for its index banks will rise about 7% in 2025. Total revenues are expected to be around $246.2 billion, representing the strongest annual results since 2009. Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo projects trading revenues will increase about 8% in the first half of 2025, slow to approximately 5% in the second half, and settle into low single-digit growth by 2026.
Thus, leading banks globally anticipate steady growth in trading revenues in the coming years, likely driven by ongoing market volatility and changes in economic policies.
