Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have assigned Litecoin ($LTC) the highest probability of spot ETF approval by 2025, rating its chances at 90%. This puts Litecoin ahead of Dogecoin, Solana, and XRP, indicating a significant shift in institutional sentiment toward altcoins.
Why Litecoin Tops the List
The key reason for Litecoin’s strong approval chances is its regulatory status. Since Litecoin is a Bitcoin fork that operates on the same proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, analysts believe it will be classified as a commodity rather than a security. Additionally, Litecoin enjoys favorability from the SEC and CFTC, unlike XRP and Solana, which have been labeled as securities in lawsuits. Litecoin has also not conducted an ICO, making it less likely to be targeted by the SEC. Both Grayscale and Canary Capital have submitted spot LTC ETF applications, which meet all regulatory criteria.
Regulatory Challenges for Solana and XRP
While Solana and XRP have a fair chance of ETF approval, their regulatory status remains unclear. In the case of XRP, the legal battle between the SEC and Ripple is still unresolved, and despite a 2023 ruling stating that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC continues to challenge this decision. Solana was directly named as a security in the SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making its classification a bigger hurdle for ETF approval.
Political Shift and Crypto ETF Prospects
Eric Balchunas pointed out that the regulatory environment shifted after Donald Trump's election victory. The new administration appears more open to crypto, signaling a potential softening of the SEC’s stance on digital assets. This political shift has accelerated ETF filings, with Nasdaq recently submitting 19b-4 forms for Litecoin and XRP ETFs on behalf of CoinShares. Additionally, Cboe BZX Exchange has filed applications for XRP ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.
The market confidence in crypto ETFs has surged dramatically in 2025, and analysts predict that more such products will emerge. According to Polymarket data, Litecoin ETF approval odds surged from 42% in January to over 81% today. It is expected that issuers will test multiple products, and only the most successful ones will survive in the market.
