Polymarket, a prediction platform, is under scrutiny for alleged manipulation of a $7 million market about Ukraine's mineral deal with Trump.
Manipulation Allegations
The market was resolved as 'Yes', despite no official confirmation from the U.S. or Ukraine. Users claim this is the biggest manipulation case on the platform, accusing insiders of altering the outcome. The market rules stated reliance on official government sources, but this was disregarded, leading to significant losses for many users.
Reactions and Consequences
Polymarket's team responded on Discord but did not offer refunds. They claimed the issue was not a platform failure but a unique situation they would work to prevent in the future. However, this explanation did not satisfy users who lost money.
System Flaws and Future Prospects
A crypto user named Folke Hermansen shared examples of past insider manipulation cases. He claimed that the UMA system, used to verify outcomes, is flawed. Two whales control over half the voting power, which makes it hard for smaller users to challenge outcomes. Challenging a market requires a bond of $750 USDC, which many can't afford, keeping control in few hands. The anonymous nature of voting also allows unchecked manipulation.
With users questioning the fairness of its markets, Polymarket's credibility is at risk. Without changes, confidence in the platform could collapse.
