Last week, Bitcoin (BTC USD) surged above $106,000, sparking a new rally in the market. However, blockchain data suggests potential complexities in interpreting this rise.
Whales Exit, But Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Step In
From June 15 to June 24, over 1.02 million BTC moved to long-term holder wallets, marking one of the largest accumulation periods since early 2023. These coins were absorbed during a time when newer market entrants reportedly lost $228 million in just 10 days. This behavior suggests that while smart money is steadily moving out, conviction-driven wallets are stepping in. However, this accumulation has not led to a price increase, and Bitcoin retraced to test the $104K–$105K zone.
Retail Interaction with Local Tops
Between June 20 and June 23, the number of retail traders on Binance surged, leading to user inflows that reached their highest point since May 2022. This activity coincided almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s recent local top, indicating that fresh buyers may have entered the market at overheated levels. Historically, major inflows to centralized exchanges, especially from smaller wallets, tend to suggest FOMO-driven buying, which can indicate short-term tops.
Dormant Wallets Reactivate in the Bitcoin Market
Another noteworthy shift has been the movement of previously inactive BTC wallets for the first time in over 3–5 years. While these movements are not massive in volume, they typically occur when long-term holders feel pressure or an opportunity to reposition. In the current market, such repositioning could be viewed as a red flag, as even the oldest holders may awaken to sell into the strength.
Maintaining Bitcoin holdings above the $104K–$105K region remains crucial for determining near-term direction. A break below this level could indicate structural weakness in the recent rally, driven more by speculative involvement than organic demand.
