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Mike Wilson Predicts Temporary Decline in US Stocks

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

5 hours ago


Mike Wilson, head of U.S. equity strategy at Morgan Stanley, predicts a modest retreat in U.S. stock markets for Q3. This is linked to the effects of trade tariffs.

What Are the Tariff Implications?

Wilson points out that trade tariffs may lead to increased costs of goods sold, potentially resulting in a correction ranging from 5% to 7%. Although these repercussions could be more significant for some companies, the strategist believes the effects will be temporary. He remains optimistic about earnings growth prospects heading into 2026.

The third quarter will probably be the period when risks are most felt, with the impact of trade tariffs reflected in sales costs. I don’t expect a large-scale correction. It could be around 5-7%. For some companies, this rate will be higher, but overall, these effects are temporary. Also, the year 2026 currently looks more positive in terms of earnings growth.Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist)

Is a New Bull Market Emerging?

Wilson believes the anticipated downturn will be brief, suggesting that the ongoing upswing marks the beginning of a bull market. While acknowledging the possibility of unexpected events causing deeper corrections, current data does not indicate a decline beyond 10%.

This appears to be the start of a new bull market; the movement is rapid and accelerates beyond expectations. I think the pullback will be short and superficial. Perhaps a surprise development could lead to a more intense correction, but given the current picture, I don’t expect a drop beyond 5 or 10%.Mike Wilson

How Should Investors Prepare for Pullbacks?

Strategist Wilson suggests that potential price dips in Q3 could serve as opportunities for long-term investors. Even though the current market trajectory is positive, short-term risks might temporarily impact prices. Financial experts advise that market corrections should be viewed as expected occurrences. They recommend investors remain calm and focused on long-term trends, which still predict growth.

Despite temporary disturbances from tariffs and broader economic conditions, the long-term outlook for U.S. stocks remains optimistic, suggesting a stable environment for investors looking ahead.

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