Military tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are reaching a new level. Predictions regarding possible U.S. military involvement and its market impact are raising concerns among observers.
Predictions for U.S. Military Action Against Iran
On the Polymarket platform, there is currently a wager anticipating a 67% probability of a U.S. military strike against Iran before July 2025. Earlier in June, the probability was at 45%, but by the 18th, it increased to this level. The total trading volume in this market reached $6.59 million, making it one of the most active on the platform.
Diplomatic Emergency
In light of the escalating situation, Donald Trump abruptly left the G7 summit to *‘directly handle the Iranian crisis’*. Reports mention discussions of an evacuation of Tehran, raising concerns about a potential large-scale military strategy.
Other Predictions and Betting Markets
On Kalshi, a bet of $52,999 reflects a 46% probability that a nuclear agreement will be signed between the U.S. and Iran by the end of the year. Additionally, there is a 41% chance estimated for an official meeting between an American delegation and Iranian representatives before July. Polymarket also offers a market indicating a 51% probability of signing an official agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by the end of 2025.
The rising tensions and possible military intervention are becoming key topics for analysts and investors alike. Recent events in the region are likely to impact the economy and financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
