In the wake of the latest FOMC minutes and critical inflationary warnings from Federal Reserve officials, analysts are recalibrating their economic expectations. Among them is TKL, who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s recent peak and has now provided a bold projection: that gold could soar above $5000.
Fed's Cautiously Optimistic Stance Amid Tariffs
The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released yesterday, indicated a degree of optimism regarding tariff policy. However, they did not account for recent geopolitical escalations, including global trade letters sent by the U.S. administration. If no new agreements are reached, **steep tariffs could take effect on August 1**, significantly raising effective trade duties on imports.
Currently, the effective tariff rate stands at **15%**, a sixfold increase since the beginning of the year. According to Musalem’s remarks, inflation remains under control for now, but risks are clearly tilted to the upside due to new trade pressures. He noted that:
* "The economy is near full employment." * "Tariffs may increase inflation, but the scale and permanence are still uncertain." * "High profit margins allow some absorption of tariff impacts." * "The real effects may become visible by late 2025 or early 2026."
TKL's Bold Gold Price Projection
While the Fed appears cautious, TKL is preparing for a possible policy shift. If rate cuts accelerate—especially in response to political pressure and slowing global demand—TKL forecasts **a major surge in gold prices**. According to their updated model, a 300 basis point rate cut could fuel a scenario similar to the 2021–2024 cycle, where inflation surged and the U.S. dollar weakened.
This time, TKL sees gold breaking above **$5000**, which would represent a potential **40% gain over 12 months** and **up to 80% over five years**. Such a move would reflect both monetary expansion and renewed investor demand for hard assets as a hedge against fiscal and geopolitical instability.
Broader Market Implications Beyond Gold
TKL’s broader asset outlook also includes an **SPX target of 7000** and a stabilized **oil price at $80** under similar macro conditions. These targets underline a belief that easing policy will bolster risk assets while pressuring the dollar.
As reported by [Dey There](https://deythere.com/), TKL’s predictions are being increasingly monitored by institutional and retail investors alike, especially after their accurate call on the BTC peak. With the Fed, trade tensions, and inflation dynamics in flux, gold's trajectory could become a defining macro story for the next 12 months.
The situation concerning gold and other assets remains complex, and future changes in Fed policy could be pivotal in shaping economic narratives and investor behavior moving forward.
