New York-based data scientist Alex McCullough has demonstrated that the prediction platform Polymarket achieves impressive accuracy, especially in sports and politics.
Key Data in Polymarket Predictions
McCullough conducted a comprehensive analysis of Polymarket's historical data. Some predictions exceed 90%, while others are below 10%. These extremes were excluded for more accurate results. Long-term predictions feature a broader probability distribution, necessitating more cautious predictions and achieving higher accuracy.
Notable Performance in Sports and Politics
The predictive accuracy in sports markets is impressive. Predictions for organizations like the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League have proven to be accurate. In political markets, Polymarket provides a clearer picture of contests than traditional polls.
McCullough's analysis shows significant potential for Polymarket in predictions, especially in environments with high uncertainty, such as sports and politics.
