Recent advancements in quantum technologies raise concerns about Bitcoin's security. We analyze the risks and protective measures.
The Google Threat
Google's research has shown that the resources needed to break RSA-2048 have decreased significantly. This breakthrough is due to the optimization of Shor’s algorithm and improved error correction. Now, only one million qubits are required to break RSA-2048, down from 20 million before. Currently, IBM's largest quantum processor has only 1021 qubits. However, these quantum systems still cannot factor numbers as small as 35, which indicates that the tangible threat is mostly theoretical.
How Threatened is Bitcoin?
The implementation of Shor’s algorithm could simplify the cryptography behind Bitcoin. Nevertheless, BTC and the elliptic curve 'secp256k1' are not directly threatened by Google’s advances. Yet, there are warnings that ECDSA used in Bitcoin may be more easily attacked than RSA. Some researchers suggest that future AI improvements could optimize Shor’s algorithm for a more efficient attack on ECDSA.
Ways to Protect Bitcoin
Bitcoin transactions require revealing public keys, which presents risks. It is crucial to avoid reusing addresses due to vulnerabilities in cryptographic methods. New standards in post-quantum cryptography being developed by NIST are expected to introduce algorithms like CRYSTALS-Dilithium and FALCON. However, using these algorithms will lead to larger signature sizes, thus reducing network throughput.
Quantum technologies pose a potential threat to Bitcoin; however, protective measures are already being developed. Adapting to post-quantum cryptography will be a key step in ensuring the security of the cryptocurrency.
