In recent months, the odds of approval for altcoin ETFs have significantly increased. According to data from Bloomberg and Polymarket, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are showing high chances for launch.
Probability of ETF Approval
According to Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Avalanche has a 75% chance of approval, while Dogecoin's probability stands at 80%. Solana is also in a strong position, with approval odds ranging from 83% to 91% on the Polymarket platform.
Application Pipeline from Major Firms
Most ETF proposals have been submitted by firms already managing Bitcoin and Ethereum products. A total of 72 applications covering smaller altcoins have been submitted, many of which are still in early stages or awaiting completion. XRP has 19 ETF filings under review, making it one of the most active assets in this pipeline.
New ETF Models with Staking Functionality
An increasing number of ETF proposals now include staking for eligible tokens such as Ethereum and Solana. This feature may reshape the ETF landscape by providing passive yield options, although it may also invite stricter regulatory scrutiny. Nonetheless, most filings continue to focus on assets with previous market cycles, with niche or meme tokens like Polkadot and Hedera Hashgraph holding significantly lower approval odds.
Despite the positive odds, ETF approvals have faced constant delays. SEC decisions remain uncertain, and it remains to be seen how this will impact asset prices. However, the rising volume of applications indicates sustained institutional interest in regulated cryptocurrency exposure.
