The current global chaos stems from predictable historical cycles. The "Fourth Turning" theory suggests the inevitability of crisis periods that require adaptation to new economic realities.
The "Fourth Turning" Theory and Its Predictions
Introduced by Neil Howe and William Strauss in 1997, the book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" offers a vision of historical cycles lasting 80-100 years that culminate in major crises. These cycles pass through four phases: "High", "Awakening", "Unraveling", and finally, the "Fourth Turning", when old systems collapse.
Causes of the Current Collapse
Several converging factors are shaping the crisis. Economic imbalances accumulated since 2008 have created a dependence on cheap credit, leading to historically high levels of debt. Political and social fragmentation, alongside rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are key catalysts for the current collapse.
Economic Scenarios for the Coming Years
In light of systemic threats, the economic consequences could be severe. When debts reach unsustainable levels, governments face a choice: drastically cut spending, default, or create inflation. Inflation has traditionally become the preferred political solution but imposes its consequences on ordinary citizens.
Looking ahead, it is vital to learn from history and begin reallocating assets to strengthen financial standing in the face of expected crises.
