Panic among Bitcoin's short-term holders following the Bybit hack led to notable market volatility.
Indicators of Bearish Momentum
Over the past 16 hours, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart on Binance showed significant bearish indicators. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross revealed a bearish crossover, signaling short-term downward momentum. This aligns with Bitcoin’s price decline to $96,259.9, a -0.12% drop from the previous period. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 46.05, reflecting a neutral but slightly bearish outlook. However, if it rebounds above 50, bullish sentiment might return, supporting price recovery.
STHs Offloading Bitcoin
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showed a net volume delta of -94.67K, reflecting strong selling pressure in the last 8 hours. This suggests that STHs may be offloading Bitcoin, potentially forming a short-term local bottom as selling pressure diminishes. The Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss (P&L) to Exchanges Sum chart for the last 24 hours also highlighted substantial losses among STHs. This data suggests a potential local bottom, as distressed selling often exhausts downward momentum, creating a possible buying window for traders.
Decline in Trading Activity
Analysis of the 90-Day Active Supply chart for Bitcoin showed a notable decline in recent months. This metric indicates a decline in trading activity, with current trends suggesting that STHs had largely exited, potentially reducing selling pressure. The Bitcoin netflow chart for aggregated exchanges over the last three months revealed a sharp net outflow of -546.11 Bitcoin in the past 24 hours. This sudden negative netflow typically indicates that holders are withdrawing Bitcoin to off-exchange wallets, suggesting reduced selling pressure. The 24-hour netflow change of +269.71 Bitcoin suggests renewed buying interest. Despite short-term volatility, long-term indicators suggest a potential shift toward recovery as selling pressure subsides.
Analyzing the current Bitcoin market situation, it is evident that recent events related to the Bybit hack caused panic among short-term holders. However, the reduction in selling pressure and signs of increased buying interest may contribute to stabilization and potential recovery.
