The trade war initiated by President Donald Trump is causing shifts in the global economic landscape. The International Monetary Fund is revising its forecasts for global growth.
Global Growth Forecast Revision
On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to cut its global growth outlook. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that 'the new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession.' She also added that 'protracted high uncertainty raises the risk of financial-market stress.'
Situation in the USA and Canada
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will provide insights on how firms are coping with higher tariffs and restructured supply lines. A small rise in March new home sales is expected, although the housing market remains under pressure due to persistently high mortgage rates. In Canada, the election campaign is in its final week, with Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals ahead by five points.
Situation Analysis in the Asia-Pacific Region
On Monday, China will set its loan prime rates, with no changes anticipated. Concurrently, other countries in the region, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, will release trade data reflecting conditions prior to the new U.S. measures. Employment data from Taiwan and Hong Kong, alongside New Zealand's trade figures, are expected on Wednesday.
The forthcoming data from various countries will provide detailed insights into the trade war's consequences and help assess the state of the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva assures that a global recession is not expected in the near future.
