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U.S. Payroll Growth Counters Federal Reserve Rate Expectations

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

11 hours ago


In April 2025, the U.S. reported an increase of 177,000 jobs, altering rate cut expectations and increasing Treasury yields.

U.S. Employment Data

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, payrolls rose by 177,000 in April 2025, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.2%. This signal of a stable job market aligns with economists' expectations and provides grounds for reassessing rate forecasts.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

In response to the fresh data, traders adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipating a reduction of 85 basis points instead of the previously forecasted 90 basis points. Consequently, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds increased by 7 basis points to 3.77%.

Impact on Cryptocurrency Market

Historical trends indicate that positive employment data often leads to increased bond yields and a stronger dollar, which may weigh on risk-sensitive assets. Recent Bitcoin (BTC) data shows a trading volume of $26.54 billion in the past 24 hours, reflecting a 16.81% decrease and a market capitalization of $1.92 trillion.

The strong jobs data indicated tariff uncertainty had not yet significantly impacted employment, which in turn affected interest rate expectations.Jinshi, Market Analyst

Recent U.S. employment data highlights labor market stability and may significantly affect financial markets in terms of interest rate expectations and cryptocurrency.

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