Amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the probability of an economic recession in the US has risen to 62% by 2025. New tariffs and market reactions create instability, impacting stock and cryptocurrency prices.
Reasons for Rising Recession Probability
According to data released on April 5, 2025, the likelihood of an economic recession in the US increased to 62%. This is due to new tariffs on Chinese goods imposed on April 2, 2025. China has also retaliated with a 34% tariff on US products. These actions raise concerns about global economic stability.
Market Reactions and Bitcoin Volatility
Financial markets reacted to the rising tensions, reflected in a sharp decline in stocks, especially in the technology sector. Bitcoin dropped from $84,000 to $81,500, indicating overall investor caution. Experts express concerns about Bitcoin's reliability as a safe haven asset amid this volatility.
Economic Data and Expert Opinions
Some analysts expect further deterioration of the economic situation. For instance, Bob Loukas stated, 'I'm starting to think we're heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one... but risks weigh heavily. Bonds are safer, but Bitcoin might hold up due to digital gold narratives.' Data shows Bitcoin remains dominant in the cryptocurrency market.
The potential recession in the US amidst trade disputes contradicts hopes for economic stability. Experts emphasize the importance of prudent economic management amid rising risks.
