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What Changes in S&P 500 Does JPMorgan Predict Depending on Employment Reports?

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

8 hours ago


JPMorgan conducted a simulation analyzing possible reactions of the S&P 500 to upcoming U.S. employment data, showing potential implications for both equity and cryptocurrency markets.

Forecasting S&P 500 Movements

JPMorgan's trading department modeled market scenarios surrounding U.S. non-farm payroll data. The bank anticipates potential shifts in the S&P 500 index, suggesting a drop of up to 1.5% for job additions between 85,000 and 105,000. Conversely, if figures exceed 145,000, the index could rise by up to 1.5%. Should the report reveal less than 85,000 new jobs, the S&P 500 may sharply decline by 2% to 3%, highlighting the market's sensitivity to employment news.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are likely to echo these movements, as Bitcoin and other major digital assets may experience correlated responses due to overall market sentiment. Prominent crypto figures have consistently noted the effects of liquidity and labor data on market behaviors. Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, emphasized that "liquidity drives everything. U.S. macro surprises can trigger ripples across all risk assets, crypto included, especially when labor data drives Fed expectations."

Historical Context and Expert Opinions

Historical data indicates that the January 2022 non-farm payroll report resulted in a 2% drop in the S&P 500 and a 4%-7% decline in Bitcoin, underlining the sensitivity of asset markets to U.S. labor data. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $109,170.77, showing a 24-hour increase of 2.47%. Analysis from the Coincu research team highlights potential regulatory shifts that may align cryptocurrencies with broader financial systems, providing a stabilizing platform alongside forthcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases.

Therefore, U.S. employment data significantly impacts both equity indexes and cryptocurrency markets, emphasizing the importance of its analysis for understanding market dynamics.

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