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What's Behind the S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Decline?

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

a year ago

Analysts report that the S&P 500 equity risk premium has fallen to its lowest levels, causing shifts in financial markets.

Current State of the Risk Premium

Equity risk premium is the extra return investors expect from stocks over risk-free assets like government bonds. The latest decline for the S&P 500 leads to assumptions that the worst is yet to come, as it hits the lowest level since 2000, making analysts concerned.

Increase in Bond Yields

Bond yields have risen since the last Fed rate cut, making stocks less attractive. Analyst David Rosenberg mentioned that a 10-basis-point shift could lead the equity risk premium to go negative.

With this move in bond yields, we are now just 10 basis points away from the Equity Risk Premium shifting negative.David Rosenberg

Impact of Trump's Policies

Economists discuss the potential impact of Trump's policies on S&P 500 earnings. Goldman Sachs predicts a 20% earnings increase over the next two years due to proposed tax reforms. David Kostin from Goldman Sachs claims that current market stability creates favorable conditions for stocks.

The S&P 500 equity risk premium decline is sparking debates about the market's future. Some experts emphasize the need for cautious strategic decisions.

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