Over the past 100 days, XRP has struggled to maintain bullish momentum, and recent price movements may indicate further declines. This article examines various technical patterns and economic factors influencing XRP's price.
Chart Patterns Analysis
XRP's charts show several bearish patterns:
* **Double Top (Daily):** A classic double top formed between late February and mid-March near the $2.80 level. The neckline at $2.03 has been decisively broken, confirming a major bearish reversal and opening downside potential toward $1.60 and $1.35.
* **Descending Triangle (4H):** A descending triangle formed through March with repeated lower highs and stable support at $2.03. The recent breakdown signals intensified selling pressure.
* **Bearish Flag (15M):** On lower timeframes, XRP printed a bear flag during brief consolidations which resulted in a sharp price decline.
* **Broadening Wedge (4H):** A volatile broadening wedge emerged in early April with the breakdown accelerating the move to new local lows.
Indicators Analysis
Key indicators are as follows:
* **Bollinger Bands (Daily & 4H):** Price is hugging the lower band, signaling persistent selling. The squeeze in earlier weeks gave way to an expansion, confirming volatility returning with bearish follow-through.
* **MACD (All Timeframes):** MACD shows clear bearish crossovers on the daily and 4H charts with widening histogram bars. The 15M chart indicates a slight bullish divergence which may suggest a brief relief bounce, but the overall trend remains negative.
* **EMA (20/50/100):** XRP is trading below the 20, 50, and 100 EMA across all timeframes, with the 20 EMA acting as dynamic resistance. The 100-day EMA on the daily chart sits near $2.22, now a major resistance zone.
* **RSI:** Daily RSI is near 30, indicating oversold conditions, but no reversal has occurred yet. The 4H RSI confirms bearish momentum while the 15M RSI dips below 25, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.
Fundamental Outlook and Forecast
XRP continues to face regulatory pressure from the SEC case, muting investor enthusiasm despite attempts for market recovery. While utility adoption for the XRP Ledger is progressing, market sentiment remains reactive to legal updates and macroeconomic factors like Fed policy and cryptocurrency ETF flows.
Ripple's expansion in APAC and On-Demand Liquidity corridors adds long-term value, but near-term price is more influenced by speculative flows and sentiment, both of which currently favor risk-off.
Should XRP fail to reclaim $2.03 on robust volume, further declines to $1.60 and potentially $1.35 are likely. A break above the $2.22–$2.30 zone along with MACD and RSI reversals could shift sentiment.
Given the current bearish signals, monitoring key support and resistance levels in the upcoming days will be critical. Possible consolidation could occur in the range between $1.60 and $1.83 before the next significant move.
