The discussion surrounding XRP's price has garnered considerable attention lately, especially given the increasing chances of ETF approvals and Ripple's involvement in CBDC infrastructure. However, it is important to bear in mind the risks associated with whale selling and regulatory uncertainties.
Bullish Factors for XRP: ETF and CBDC
Among the most promising factors driving XRP's price is the likelihood of a U.S.-listed ETF approval. Bloomberg’s James Seyffart now assigns a 95% approval chance, with an SEC decision expected by October 2025, which could introduce significant institutional inflows and increase XRP's visibility among investors.
Additionally, Ripple's growing involvement in central bank digital currency (CBDC) infrastructure is building long-term utility. The company is working with over five central banks, including Bhutan and Colombia, using the XRP Ledger as the foundation. These partnerships position XRP as a serious player in global digital payments.
Moreover, XRP's locked supply structure supports price stability, as 38 billion XRP remain in escrow until 2027, reducing inflation risk.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Risk Zones
XRP is trading near key resistance levels at $2.3 and $2.48. A breakout above $2.59 could pave the way to $2.9, reinforcing bullish momentum.
However, the current descending triangle pattern suggests vulnerability. If support at $2.06 breaks, XRP may retest lower zones around $1.60–$1.35. The RSI hovering between 36 and 44 indicates indecision, with momentum neither strongly bullish nor bearish.
Bearish Risks: Whale Selling and Regulatory Drag
Despite bullish developments, whale selling remains a threat to short-term price action. On-chain data shows large holders have been offloading up to $68.5 million in XRP daily, potentially capping near-term rallies.
Regulatory overhang continues to cast uncertainty. A $50 million SEC lawsuit settlement is still pending, and procedural delays have pushed final resolution further into 2025. While resolution could unlock institutional adoption, the current lack of clarity is deterring some investors.
Ripple’s entry into the stablecoin space with RLUSD, launched in June 2025, introduces both opportunity and risk. While the new asset could enhance XRP ecosystem liquidity, it may divert usage away from XRP for payment-specific roles.
In conclusion, analyzing the factors affecting XRP's price reveals both bullish and bearish aspects. It is essential to monitor the developments with regulatory bodies and the activity of large holders, as these could significantly influence the future market dynamics of XRP.
